On Sunday, November 23, 2025, at 17:30 UTC, Estadio Coliseum Alfonso Pérez in Getafe will host one of La Liga’s most stubborn rivalries: Getafe versus Atletico Madrid. The stakes? More than just three points. With Atletico Madrid clinging to fourth place—25 points from 12 matches—and Getafe hovering just outside the European spots at eighth (17 points), this isn’t just another mid-table clash. It’s a test of resilience. And in Getafe, resilience has a name: the Coliseum.
Home Fortress vs. Away Pressure
Getafe may not have the firepower of their visitors, but they’ve built a reputation for making life miserable for bigger clubs on their own patch. The numbers don’t lie: in their last 12 home games, Getafe have conceded just 1.41 expected goals per match, and they’ve kept six clean sheets since the start of the 2025-26 season. Their 1-0 win over Athletic Bilbao and 2-1 triumph against Girona proved they can grind out results. But they’re coming off a 1-0 loss to Mallorca, and the international break may have disrupted their rhythm. Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid are riding high after a 3-1 win over Levante, where Antoine Griezmann returned with a brace. The Frenchman’s form is critical. With Diego Simeone’s side just six points behind league leaders Real Madrid, every point matters. But here’s the twist: Atletico have won only two of their last five away matches in La Liga, and their xG (expected goals) on the road has dropped below 1.5 per game.Historical Dominance, Recent Upset
The head-to-head record screams Atletico Madrid dominance: 24 wins in 34 meetings, a 71% win rate. But history, as they say, is written by the winners—and Getafe wrote a new chapter in November 2024. That 1-0 win at the Coliseum was their first over Atletico since 2011. And it wasn’t a fluke. They pressed high, defended in numbers, and capitalized on a defensive error. Since then, they’ve beaten Atletico in two of their last three meetings. That’s not a trend—it’s a psychological shift. Atletico fans may point to the 0-1 win last season, where Duarte’s own goal decided things. But that match was played in Madrid. This one? It’s in Getafe. And the crowd knows it. The Coliseum’s 17,000 seats aren’t just seats—they’re a wall. When the home side scores, the noise doesn’t fade. It builds. And it rattles.What the Numbers Say
Dimers.com ran 10,000 simulations. The result? Atletico Madrid at 48.5% to win, Getafe at 23.6%, and a draw at 27.9%. The most likely score? 0-1. But here’s the kicker: that outcome has only a 15% probability. In other words, the model says it’s the *most likely*, but still less than half as probable as a draw or a Getafe win combined. SportsMole predicts 1-1. Football Predictions says: “There’s big value in betting on a draw.” And LeagueLane recommends Atletico Madrid to win and under 2.5 goals at 3.25 odds. Why? Because both teams play tight. Getafe average just one goal per game. Atletico concede just 0.33 per match. Even with Griezmann back, this isn’t a high-scoring affair.Who Holds the Key?
For Getafe, it’s Luis Milla. Ranked first in La Liga for big chances created (8), he’s the architect of their counterattacks. If he finds space between Atletico’s midfield and defense, watch out. For Atletico, it’s not just Griezmann—it’s the backline. Jose Gimenez and Stefan Savic have kept three clean sheets in their last five games. But they’ve also been caught out on set pieces. And Getafe have scored three goals from corners this season.What’s Next?
If Atletico win, they’ll close the gap on Real Madrid to three points. A draw? That’s a missed opportunity. A loss? It could spark questions about their away form and Simeone’s tactics against organized defenses. For Getafe, a win would push them into the top six for the first time since 2023. A draw? Still a moral victory. A loss? They’ll be back in the fight next week.Why This Matters Beyond the Table
This isn’t just about points. It’s about identity. Atletico Madrid are built to win ugly. But can they win ugly *away* against a team that’s become specialists in making them ugly? Getafe are the ultimate underdogs—but they’re no longer just fighting to survive. They’re fighting to prove they belong.Frequently Asked Questions
How does this match affect Atletico Madrid’s title hopes?
A win keeps Atletico Madrid within striking distance of Real Madrid, currently six points ahead. A draw or loss would widen the gap and make their title challenge significantly harder, especially with tough away fixtures against Barcelona and Sevilla coming up in December.
Why is the draw considered a strong betting option?
Despite Atletico Madrid’s superior form, Getafe have drawn five of their last eight home games and are exceptionally difficult to break down. With both teams prioritizing defensive stability and low xG totals, a 1-1 or 0-0 result is statistically more likely than a high-scoring win.
What’s the significance of Luis Milla’s role for Getafe?
Luis Milla leads La Liga in big chances created with eight, making him the creative engine behind Getafe’s offense. His ability to thread passes into space behind Atletico’s high line could be decisive, especially if Atletico push forward after taking the lead.
Has Getafe ever beaten Atletico Madrid twice in a row?
No. Getafe’s last win over Atletico came in November 2024, their first since 2011. They haven’t recorded back-to-back victories against Atletico since 2010. This match is their chance to break a 15-year streak of dominance—and make history.
Why is the Estadio Coliseum such a tough venue for visitors?
The Coliseum’s compact size (17,000 seats) creates intense pressure, and Getafe’s fans are among La Liga’s most vocal. Teams like Barcelona and Real Madrid have struggled here in recent years. Atletico’s recent away form suggests they’re vulnerable to hostile environments, especially when opponents defend deep and counter effectively.
What’s the most likely outcome based on data?
While Dimers.com’s top predicted score is 0-1 to Atletico (15% probability), the combined likelihood of a draw (27.9%) or a Getafe win (23.6%) exceeds Atletico’s outright win probability. With both teams favoring low-risk tactics, a 1-1 draw remains the most statistically plausible result.
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